Stock Market Rally in Store

Good Morning Stockhoppers, Earning reports still keep coming in mixed. Major indexes have been correcting a bit. One thing I notice with these markets here lately is that they will be down big during the day and come back at the end of the day, maybe not into positive territory but all the same they do rally back at the end of the day.....

What does this snap back tell me? The rubber band is not broke. The traders still believe in this market. Fundamentally the earnings have not been that bad. Many positive surprises. TECHNICALLY though...

Technically speaking this market is ready to rally!! we should see 3 to 4 days of gains here next week. Many stocks will rebound. After staying up late Friday night I analyzed the stocks that are poised to take full advantage of our mini rally forthcoming. Here they are!!

MBI - @ a break above 8.97 Earnings are coming out on Monday so trade accordingly, by the way they are suppose to beat estimates.

ETFC - @a break above 15.40. News has been neutral but traders taking interest here. Check the volume.

RF - @ a break above 7.51. News here is neutral,set up beautifully... technically speaking.

Yhoo - @ a break above 14.44. Another technical set-up. I guess it would help if deal with Japan comes through.

These are my picks to have large percentage gains. Others that you may want to put on your watch list are: ZION,DFS,HST,FTR,F,GE.

Hope these prove profitable for you and until next time......Chart wisely today!!

Signed

Master Stockhopper

Dow Jones Review/Wheres Ford Heading?

Good Morning Stockhoppers, This market is getting very topsy turvey(are those words). We are starting to see those large ups and downs which means.....uncertainty in the market!! For a long time now we have seen nice steady gains and just some healthy cooling off with the major indexes. Not so anymore. Take a look at the Dow Jones chart,look at the wider ranging days here the last week of trading. It tells the whole story of how the market feels right now UNDECIDED bulls win one the bears win one. Look for another day of consolidation while the Dow is forming its pennant.

Ford Motor technically is showing that the market is reacting to the other auto makers news. Ford is not the only game in town anymore!, this chart is also showing indecision of which way the traders want to go. Take a look at Fords chart,what has me concerned is that the 13 day exponential moving average is leveling off and slightly turning down toward the 21 day exponential moving average.

On the bright side this is a time many traders will make a lot of money trading these wide ranging days. Just keep reading the charts - the 21 day ema and the 13 day ema. Remember the old saying the trend is really your friend.

Until next time.....Happy Stock Charting!!

Did You Know?...Update on Ford,GE

Good Morning Stockhoppers, Today is really going to be somewhat of a wash. Pre-Holiday trading usually is. Should see a up day today,again due to the Easter holiday. Did you know that on the last trading day before Christmas that there has not been a down trading day in the market for I do not know how long(can someone could tell me the exact stat), I have made a good share of money on the last trading day before Christmas. It is kind of a unwritten law, this will also hold true for the Easter holiday(even though I do not know the exact stat), the market always seems to be in a good mood before the big holidays, so take advantage of that little stat.

The major indexes should see a rebound off the the 13day exponential moving average. As you can see by the DJI index chart there is consolidation,with a slightly negative tone. Now I will say this, if the market does have a down day today,BEWARE, I am not an alarmist by any means, I just read the charts to gauge the mood of the market and if the market is in a bad mood today in what is traditionally suppose to be a good mood day, well that gives me a strong signal of what could be coming. Really the market could have an up day today and still show a negative trend,what I mean if it goes below yesterdays low and does not go higher than yesterdays high than I will still consider this market to be showing a negative tone. I do not try to predict too far into the future, I take it day to day, in todays market, I think you have to.

Ford stock as I predicted yesterday BEFORE the open is showing weakness. It gaped down yesterday, now today we could possibly see it cover that gap, but do not be fooled by that Easter Bunny behind the curtain, it will take a few good up days before the trend reverses. Ford stock is now trading below both the 13day and 21day exponential moving averages, before I will consider purchasing this stock it must be sitting on top of these averages.

As far as my active trade in shorting GE, I am still slightly out of the money, although much less than I was yesterday as it continues to show weakness. I shorted at 17.93 and how I decide whether or not I am going to stick with it or cover it is I ask myself would I short this stock today? the answer to that question is yes I would.

Well that is all for now I hope you all have a great Easter Holiday and ....Happy Charting!!!

Market Resting or Exhausted

Hello Stockhoppers, Well tell me is the market just taking a little rest or is it exhausted and ready to retreat? After all it has climbed a big hill with the DJI approaching the 11000 mark, just when you think it is going to break out, it falls back. Now as you can see by the DJI index chart it has had several areas of minor consolidation, the current one being the most extensive of the three areas. The thing that concerns me most is that it is also moving farther away from the 13day and 21 day exponential moving average(you know these are the only indicators you really need to trade the major indexes)which means what? the market will soon retreat back to these levels where we wait to see whether it will bounce off these levels or continue in the downward trend.

My current position is with GE I am short this stock at 17.93 I am a little out of the money right now but the reason I have not covered this position is because if you were to ask me if I would still short this stock as of even three days ago I would still say yes. I do believe it is showing short term weakness, check out the chart. By the way watch Ford and wait for its rebound off the averages.

That is all for now until next time....Happy stock charting!!!

Todays Stock Charting Check 3-22-10

Good Morning Stock Hoppers, Looks like after the news of the new health plan being passed that the market is going to show its displeasure, but here is a good example of how charting works. Look a the DJI index chart. If you knew absolutely nothing about that congressional vote you could look at the chart and see that the DJI has reached its recent high last week and is looking a little tired and is probably going to retreat today and start a new resistance level of around 10,750.....lets see if I am going to be correct, we will follow it daily. Its funny how this works but it does. Thats what I mean when in recent blogs I talk about how the stock chart does tell the story. That does not mean that there is not news that can absolutely rock the markets,as in the case of 9/11 but these are far and few between and there is not an stock advisory out there that can predict those.

As far as my active trade GE I am looking for a break below 17.90(remember I shorted this stock last week)to confirm its downtrend. You can see from the chart that this is a pivotal day for GE as it is showing indecision on whether or not it can stay at its run up level.

Well to say the very least it is going to be a real interesting day on Wall Street today. Don't get caught up in all the emotional mumbo jumbo though,what ever your position is. Stay true to your stock charts and what they are telling you. For today I think I will just hang on to my shorts... pun intended. So until next time...Happy Stock Charting!!!

Todays Stock Chart Check

Good Morning Stock Hoppers, Just dropping a note on my on yesterdays decision to short GE at 17.92, although it finished the day at 18.19 the chart shows me that even when the major index was up yesterday, GE could not make a new high, I am still seeing short term weakness here as it should continue in a short term downward direction. I am thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of 16.90. The major index keeps plodding along in an upward direction, I did say look out for a pullback here very soon, but maybe it has to spike upward first before we see that pullback.

As for my other active trades HCBK and TER, I will give a weekend profit report on those stocks after today, currently they are both in the money!!! Until next time Happy Stock Charting!

Todays Stock Market Check

Good Morning Stock Traders, Interesting day today. I am a little nervous about buying any stock today. The DJI looks poised for gains today, but it is getting further away from its 13day and 21day exponential moving averages which always put me on alert for a pull back in the next day or two, so I will set on the sidelines and wait until the index chart gives me a little more confidence to get in. As you can see by the DJI chart the market looks ready to move forward this morning, the big question is will it be there at the end of the day........I am not so sure it will. Until next time Happy Stock Charting!!!!

Major Index Ready for Slight Pullback?

Good Morning, Take a look at the Dow Index Chart this morning. What is it telling you? To me it looks like we could be in for some retraction downward, heading back down to the Exponential moving averages today. Probably not a good day to purchase stock. It looks like it is going to fall back below the upper resistance level. So I am not even looking to purchase anything today.

As far as my active stocks. HCBK and NSM were both up yesterday midst a down market, that is always a good sign!! and they are both still hugging their moving averages in an upward trend, whether or not they will weather today's market will yet to be seen. Notice these stock charts as well. They are both still in a channel, there could be a good buying opportunity for these stocks when they break out, usually they will continue in that same direction for a few days, and if you position yourself correctly that is all you need to make a nice profit!! Remember I do not try to pick tops or bottoms, I will take my profit out of the middle then look for my next trade.

Until next time ....Happy Stock Charting

Daily Stock Chart Check

Good Morning, The Dow looks to be wanting to come back to its 13 day and 21 ema before it moves to its resistance level of 10,514. Dow futures are pointing slightly down to flat this morning but that could all change after the open.

IPG - One of my two active trades went up and hit its resistance level and now going back to meet its 13day and 21 day ema. I will wait for the bounce. Take a good look at this chart and you will see a classic head and shoulders formation forming(See the shoulder to the left and the head in the middle and the right shoulder is forming). It would be great to see it bust through resistance of 7.22 today!!

HCBK - As you can see from the chart it is bouncing off its support level looking for follow through today.

When you are looking at support and resistance levels you should see at least 3 points of where the stock bounced off of those levels, as you can see on this chart there are 5 good points where it bounced off and continue in a upward direction from its support levels. These are the type of stock charts that I look to trade because they show some predictability and trend.

Until tomorrow.......Happy Charting!

Buying Opportunities 2-16-10

This morning I looked at the overseas market and they are pointing to a higher open for our major indices. Hopefully we will start a new uptrend today, I am looking for the markets to get on top of the 13 day moving avg. Here are the possible buying opportunities I identified.

HCBK(above)- I have placed an order to buy 1000shares on a move above13.27, notice trading above 13 and 21day avg. looking for follow through.

LEG below)- Here the stock is bouncing off support levels, I believe it will move back toward the avgs. I would be watching very closely as it does reach the avgs. to see if it will bounce back but there is profit to be taken in between. I would be looking at a buy here above 18.87,but again keep an eye out as it reaches the avgs.

IPG(right) -Trading with upward momentum and above the 13day ema(exponential moving avg), it is bouncing off support levels and looking for a follow through above the 21 day ema today. I have put in an order to buy 1000shares when it moves above 6.82

Remember charting stocks is not an exact science. I look at it as more of an art. Follow these charts and see how I do.

I may be in these stocks for a day or 10 it all depends on what the stock charts tell me.

Until tomorrow.... Happy Charting

Dow Jones going to fall Again?

After Reaching back to the 13 day moving average will the the Dow Fall Again? The S & P futures are show early morning weakness for the major indices. I am still staying on the sidelines!! Until these markets can at least get on top of the 13 day moving average I am not comfortable buying any stocks I need to see some follow through( I will post exactly the day I get in and start buying).

Take a look at the chart above look at the yellow arrows, there is a difference between the last time the market reached the 13 day moving avg. compared to current conditions. When it reached it the first time it was still showing downward momentum. The last few days it has shown upward momentum. Will it bounce off the 13 day moving avg. and continue downward or will it bust through and get on top of the 13 day moving average. I said yesterday was pivotal. Well today is just as pivotal. Continue studying the charts, It will tell you exactly what is going on. There is money to be made studying charts, again be patient and wait for the chart to let you know when the right time is to buy. Have a great weekend..........

Happy Charting

Stock Charting Specific

The broad markets (which is what I look at first before I study individual stocks) are trending downward. As you can see on this chart(above left) of the Dow Jones Industrial. It had a positive day yesterday and is now reaching back up to the 14 day moving average. Before I would think about buying stocks this chart needs to show some consolidation or the 13 day needs to start pointing up. So today I am staying on the sideline until the market shakes out .

While I am not in the market today I would like to show you a current chart of the S & P 500 (right) Market and how it has trend over the past few months and where there was plenty of opportunity to make some very good $$$$$. Look at the green arrows, here you can see that the market was trending down to the 21 day moving average and then would bounce back, it did this 4 times with the last arrow showing a top.

You ask how do you know where to get out or cover your position? There are a couple of signals that tell you the market is about ready to reverse, see where the last arrow is? once the stock price breaks below that arrow would be a good signal to get out. Another strong indicator is where the 13 day moving average crosses the 21 day moving average in a downward direction.

To me this is the simplest way of keeping track of the market. Just with these two exponential averages. I use to use others like Fibonacci, Williams % R, Bollinger band(I still use these once in a while) but really all that did was mess and confuse my charts. Learn to use these averages and again use patients and you should have success charting stocks. Let me know how your doing!!

Next time I will talk a little about the possibility of SHORTING STOCKS oooh noo!

Until next time HAPPY CHARTING

Not As Hard As They Want You To Believe

Charting stocks and making a good profit is not as hard as the pros want you to believe that it is. Yes there are some criteria involved that separate the good traders from the washed out traders but it is very possible for you to make good money from watching your own money instead of just handing it over to some investment advisor, don't get me wrong there are some very good advisers, all I am saying is that no one cares more about your money than...... you do.



Charting stocks or technical analysis of a company allows you to gauge a company's momentum or lack there of by looking at the trend of the stocks price through a certain period of time. It gives you a snapshot you could say of how that company's stock is performing and even the likely hood of if it will continue or not. This is where you profit. You can make a profit on the way up or you can profit if the stock is going down. No having to look at any ratios, studying the company's earnings and revenues or dissecting the year end books, because it is all baked in the chart, the story of how well or how poor the company is doing is right on the chart and reading it is easier than you think.



Once you understand the universal principles of charting you will be able to use them in any market whether it would be stocks, options, futures, or any market for that matter. You will be able to tell who is winning the bears or the bulls, for the chartists it really does not matter.



Going back to the criteria that makes a good trader..... here is my list:





1) You must be disciplined - do not let yourself get caught up in greed. A good trader stays calm, cool and collected. Manage your emotions and read what the chart is telling you and you will be profitable.




2) Patient,Patient,Patient - I cannot stress this enough. Don't feel that you have to be in the market all the time, don't feel like your missing an opportunity just because you are not in. Some of your best trades will be the ones you decided not to get into. Let the market come to you, do not chase it.

That's it! those are the two personal criteria you will need to be a successful trader.




There are some terms that you will want to get use to like resistance ( a certain price point that the stock repeatedly will go up to but not break through) and support ( a certain price point that a stock will repeatedly go down to but always seems to bounce back from).



When researching and studying different styles of charting stocks you will hear about chart patterns such as flags, pennants,channels,1-2-3 bottom and tops, head and shoulder, the list goes on and on.



You will also hear of charting tools that may help you decide when there is a good opportunity. Some of these are: Moving averages, Bollinger Bands, stochastics, Oscillators, RSI, Williams % R, MACD...again the list goes on. There have been many books sold on these(I have actually read many of them) individual methods. These can be very contradictory and hard to evaluate.

My rule is KISS, you know Keep It Simple Student, because anyone involved in studying the market always continues to be a student. HERE IS HOW I HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL. I use the 21 day and the 14 day exponential moving average on a high,low,open,close style bar chart.



I start out by applying them to the DOW, S & P 500 and the NASDAQ exchanges, this gives me a very good idea of which direction the major indices are moving.

I figure out what the trend is, then I study and analyze all the stocks in the S & P 500(I do this at night after the market has closed) that are in my price range and decide which chart is showing me the best opportunity. The reason I use these stocks are because they are high volume stocks which means that they are very actively bought and sold and for me that makes them a bit more predictable.

When I find the charts that are interesting to me I then check the news on them to make sure there wasn't any major news out on them after the market closed that could effect the price of that stock the next day.


I then put in an order to purchase that stock at a price higher than the previous days high, anywhere from 7 to 10 cents higher. Why you ask? because I want to know that the momentum is going to continue and that my study of the stock was, at least on the open correct.

Once my stock hits my predetermined price and is purchased I continually watch it on a daily basis making sure it is continuing up the 14 and or 21 day moving average, along with watching for any breaking news on my stock that could drastically change the price of the stock.

Now for maybe the most important part WHEN TO EXIT YOUR POSITION. Not only is it important to buy right it is also as or more important to know when to sell. There are a couple of ways to do this. When starting out and you just made a nice profit and are getting nervous, GET OUT!! TAKE YOUR PROFIT!! but do yourself a big favor, find out why it was a good trade, what are the things you did right, NEVER beat yourself up when you look at the stock the next day and it went up another 10%. You made a profit, be happy and look to the next opportunity.
What I do is look at the chart and news everyday and ask myself would I buy this stock today? If my answer is yes then I hold it, if my answer is no I put in my order to sell, I take the emotion out of it. It is that cut and dry for me. Like I said earlier KEEP THE EMOTION OUT OF THE TRADE.

When Charting Stocks I never look to get in at the very bottom and out at the very top, I like to take my profit out of the middle, it is less risky.

I love the art of technical trading. I work on polishing my craft everyday. I created this Blog to find others that feel the same way and to exchange ideas and to invite people that maybe have just started or are just curious of how this can work for them.

I painted this subject with a broad brush, so do some reading on the subject of technical analysis there is not a shortage of reading material out there believe me. Let me know your thoughts.
I will continue to post in more depth on the subjects of Charting Stocks and even let you know what I am trading and the results(doing this really helps me stay focused). Currently I am on the sidelines looking for my next opportunity. Let me know how you are doing.

I am currently what I would call a part time trader, I am 43 years old, have six children and I do have another job (Realtor) but my passion is trading. I have been studying the different aspects of trading for over 15 years. I have taken my share of lumps playing options and futures, I now totally concentrate on just the stock market, it is what suits me best and where I am most comfortable. Last year 2009 was my best, I made approximately 80% on my money, and its all about being DISCIPINED and PATIENT! and over the last 6years trading has added a nice supplement to my income. I do take money out of the market because it makes it more real. Nothing nicer than seeing a check come from your brokerage firm. I know...I know Warren Buffet never sells a stock, well if I had a plane to fly all over the world to check out businesses that I might be interested in buying then maybe I wouldn't sell either. The only thing I think I have in common with Warren Buffet is that we both love what we do.

I hope this has helped you in some way or at least peaked your interest, again stayed tuned and jump in and participate....I would love to hear from you.

By the way I always advise people who are just starting out to take a month or Ten and practice, there are many brokerage companies that will set up ficticious accounts for you to do dry runs and get a feel for the process without the risk. You will know when your ready for the real thing.

Until next time...When we will talk about specific entry and exit points and my most current position(s) in the market.......... Happy Charting!!